The coming Trump administration faces significant issues that the president-elect has campaigned on Ƶ controlling inflation, closing the border, rebuilding the U.S. military, and ending military conflict in Europe and the Middle East. However, there are other critical domestic policy challenges, including supporting world-class primary education, sustainable birth rates, and Social Security/Medicare solvency that need to be seriously addressed if Trump intends to ƵMake America Great Again.Ƶ
Primary Education Excellence. An indicator of human development is the Program for International Student Ƶsessment, which is coordinated by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
In 2018, the reading literacy ranking for the United States was 18th, and the 2022 U.S. ranking was ninth; the 2018 mathematics literacy ranking for the United States was 38th, and the 2022 U.S. ranking was 34th; and the 2018 science literacy ranking for the United States was 13th, and the 2022 ranking was 16th.
While U.S. reading and mathematics literacy is up in 2022, science literacy is down from 2018. Total expenditures for public elementary and secondary schools in the United States were $927 billion in 2020-21 (in constant 2022Ƶ23 dollars), an average of $18,614 per public school pupil enrolled in the fall of the 2020-21 school year.
The United States has the highest per-pupil expenditures in the world (according to the OECD), and this investment should not result in U.S. global literacy rankings of ninth in reading, 34th in mathematics, and 16th in science.
According to Education Week, 28 states and the District of Columbia have at least one private school choice program, and of those, 12 states have at least one private school choice program thatƵs universally accessible to K-12 students in the state. With the Trump administration pushing education policy back to the states, growing state-level school choice initiatives are a necessary ƵcompetitiveƵ antidote for AmericaƵs mediocre efforts at world-class primary education. Trump needs to employ the presidential Ƶbully pulpitƵ to continue the expansion of school choice initiatives throughout the states.
Declining Birth Rates. Vice President-elect JD Vance has led the clarion call for providing public policy support for turning the trend on record-low birth rates among American women. The total fertility rate fell to 1.62 births per American woman in 2023 and has generally been below the replacement rate (2,100 births per 1,000 women) since 1971, and consistently below the replacement rate since 2007.
Economists have argued that a declining birth rate Ƶ coupled with an aging population Ƶ could be devastating for the nationƵs Social Security programƵs sustainability without enough young, working people to counterbalance the growing number of Social Security dependents.
The Trump administrationƵs public policy responses include a proposed $5,000-per-child tax credits; the public funding support for in-vitro fertilization or a legal mandate that it be covered by personal health insurance; and the Republican Congress re-introducing a plan for monthly cash benefits for working families encouraging family growth. Trump needs to take the lead on implementing these family-friendly policies.
Social Security/Medicare Solvency. The Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (ƵSocial SecurityƵ) trust fund Ƶ a Ƶpay-as-you-goƵ funding approach Ƶ and Medicare, a federal government health insurance program, are facing impending insolvency.
For Social Security, the 70 million recipients presently face a need to reduce benefits 23% by 2035, and for the 66 million Medicare recipients, in 2036, only 89% of the costs for patientsƵ hospital visits, hospice care and nursing/home health care costs after hospital visits will be covered after depletion of the fundƵs reserves.
In the 2024 Republican Platform, it states: ƵPresident Trump has made absolutely clear that he will not cut one penny from Medicare or Social Security.Ƶ The Trump campaign, however, has discussed reducing waste in federal programs and supports raising money for Social Security through a combination of getting more men back into the workforce, increasing wages, and increasing tariffs. However, the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Budget projects that exempting taxes on benefits Ƶ a Trump campaign proposal Ƶ would result in Social Security and Medicare receiving $1.6 trillion less in revenue between 2026 and 2035 than if the current rules are maintained, causing Medicare to become insolvent in 2030, followed by Social Security in 2032.
Bipartisan solutions are necessary for ensuring promised Social Security/Medicare payments to retired citizens Ƶ half of whom count on Social Security for half of their income.
Trump has accrued significant political capital from his election victory, and he should now leverage this capital to implement innovative solutions for education, fertility and Social Security/Medicare policy challenges facing the nation.
Thomas A. Hemphill is David M. French Distinguished professor of strategy, innovation and public policy in the School of Management, University of Michigan-Flint. He wrote this column for .
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